DO POT SHOPS DEVALUE HOMES?

With the legalization of recreational marijuana in Massachusetts and the opening of shops in Newton potentially on the horizon, I am being asked if pot shops will negatively affect the value of homes in the vicinity of the shops.  The answer will surprise you – several studies on the subject all came to the same conclusion – pot shops increase the value of nearby homes. 

Almost all studies focus on Colorado given recreational sale of marijuana was legalized in January 2014, providing a good span of data to study.  But studies of states with at least 1 year of data show the same trend.

  1. Real Estate Economics, in this study, James Conklin and coauthors studied how the conversion of medical marijuana stores to recreational marijuana stores affected housing prices in Denver, CO. Their research provided strong evidence that homes located near such converted stores experienced a much higher increase in value than houses located farther away — as much as 8 per cent more.
  2. Economic Inquiry – in a recent article, Cheng Cheng and coauthors found almost similar results suggesting a 6 per cent premium in prices for homes sold in municipalities that legalized retail sales of marijuana, versus those that didn’t.
  3. Realtor.com found that since the first recreational pot shops opened, the median home price in the state jumped from $248,000 in the first half of 2014 to $298,000 in the first half of 2016. Realtor.com reports the four states with at least a year of experience with recreational marijuana sales showed a marked increase in home prices — well above the national median price.
  4. An academic study from two University of Mississippi economics professors, estimates that Colorado’s legalization of recreational cannabis and local governments’ approval of retail outlets within their jurisdictions increased housing values by an average of 6 percent.
  5. A second study, from the University of Wisconsin School of Business and economics researchers from two additional universities, focused on property values in Denver and found that homes near retail cannabis outlets — within just 0.1 miles — gained 8.4 percent more in value than houses just steps further away, from 0.1 to 0.25 miles. That big increase amounted to almost $27,000 for an average house.

SOME POSSIBLE REASONS FOR THE INCREASE IN VALUE

  1. Homes around marijuana dispensaries may have been subject to a discount prior to legalization, but that legalization with no ill effect, lifted the stigma around such homes. We’ll have to watch home values in Newton over time to know if that is happening here, but so far, that does not appear to be the case.
  2. Another is that the stores had economic effects that were highly localized and boosted the economic profiles of their specific neighborhood – more jobs, bringing customers into nearby shops, paying high commercial rents, etc.
  3. Legalization led to a surge in housing demand prompted by marijuana-related jobs. And, as existing residents become more willing to remain in place, the housing supply drops as demand rises, thus the increase in property values.

It is a different story for communities harboring grow houses.  Surrounding properties do lose value because the pungent odor the plant emits turns off home seekers.

Another concern around legalization is the claim it will encourage more crime and further reduce home values of those living near growers, manufacturers, and retailers. The FBI’s Uniform Crime Report indicates a 3.5% increase since Jan 2014.  It’s important to note, however, the city began tracking marijuana-related crimes as well, which make up less than 1% of all offenses.  Experts believe the growth is tied to population growth and and not directly tied to the sale or use of the drug.

One could see that the incidents of people driving under the influence could increase.  Particularly if they are driving to a shop to get their pot.  But I suspect that if people are the type to drive under the influence, they are already doing so.

It is highly unlikely that someone is going to mug you for the pot you have in your pocket considering it is legal for everyone over the age of 21 to grow their own pot at home.  The opioid and heroin epidemic is a far greater concern when it comes to crime.  As Realtors, we warn our clients not to leave any pain medication in their medicine cabinets as addicts have been known to come to open houses and rifle through medicine cabinets.  No one is going to come through your house looking for your pot considering they can legally grow or buy it themselves.

The biggest concern is robbery of pot shops.  Because marijuana is not legalized on a federal level, shops are not able to take credit cards or checks.  They therefore, carry a lot of cash, which makes them susceptible to armed robbery.   The shops and the federal government are looking for solutions to this problem, so this could get solved over time.

So the targets of crime are the cultivators and shops.  There is no evidence that people who live around the facilities are at a higher risk of crime.

The bottom line is that evidence so far indicates that home values increase in neighborhoods where there are recreational marijuana dispensaries.

I believe right now, the biggest risk to home values is the natural ebb of the market.   It is natural for the market to soften after several years of growth and that seems to be happening now.  Buyers are being much more selective in what they will put an offer in on.  They want move-in ready houses with new kitchens and baths, Central A/C, recessed lights, newer roof, windows, mechanicals etc.  In other words, new or like-new homes, and are willing to pay a premium for those.  Houses that do not have all this are starting to languish.  Particularly as sellers believe they are riding a wave of ever increasing prices and are pricing their homes too high.

I’ll be writing another blog entry on this topic shortly so stay tuned.

Michelle J. Lane
MICHELLE J. LANE, Realtor
Century 21 Commonwealth
CELL: 617 584-3904

 

Does Remodeling for a Home Sale make sense?

by Michelle J. Lane, Realtor

I often get asked by clients what they shoud do to prepare their home for the market.  The answer, unless the property makes sense for a builder, for the most part, is clean up, do necessary repairs and sell the property you have.

While nice kitchens and baths do sell a home, spending the money to renovate these right before a sale will net you less in the end.   The Remodeling ROI report for 2018 outlines the average cost of remodeling projects and the return on those costs.  You can see from the chart below that the only renovation that gives you a 100% return is replacing the garage door.

That is not to say that you shouldn’t do renovations on your home, just that you should do them several years before you sell your house so that you can get some enjoyment out of them first.  After all, that is part of the ROI.

So where to expend your effort if you are getting ready for a sale?  

  • Clear out all the extra junk in attics, basements, closets, etc.  If it is not going with you to the next place, sell, donate, trash.
  • Fix things that are broken.  Seeing visibly broken things affects the buyer’s perception of value.  Look around your house for broken panes of glass, rotted wood, holes in the walls, light switches that don’t work, have your furnace cleaned, touch up paint, etc.  Those things are worth addressing.
  • Curb appeal  – have the yard cleaned up, edged, plant some nice flowers.
  • Have the house professionally cleaned.

I deal a lot in estate sales.  I would say that for most of those, it is also worthwhile to take up the wall-to-wall carpeting that is covering hardwood floors and, if necessary, refinish the floors.  The impact of how much it transforms the house is worth the expense.  This is fairly easy to do with estate homes as they can be cleared out.  Understandably tough to do this for a house you still occupy.

If selling your home is a few years away, it is worthwhile to have your Realtor come in and walk through the house with you to give you a checklist of those things you can do to prepare your home for sale.  That way you can take your time getting the work done and can enjoy the rewards of getting it done before you go to market.

If you want help with that, just ask!

Michelle J. Lane
MICHELLE J. LANE, Realtor
Century 21 Commonwealth
CELL: 617 584-3904

Brookline Stats – Week of Feb 12, 2018

Comparison of what is on the market in Brookline this year vs last year.  One less property.  Median price is down. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Michelle J. Lane
MICHELLE J. LANE, Realtor
Century 21 Commonwealth
CELL: 617 584-3904

Newton Stats – Week of February 12 2018

Comparison of what is on the market this week vs same time last year.  5 fewer properties and slightly lower median price.  We are trending lower inventory overall this year.

 

Michelle J. Lane

MICHELLE J. LANE, Realtor
Century 21 Commonwealth
CELL: 617 584-3904

State of the Market – February 2018

by Michelle J. Lane, Realtor

I am writing this on the tail of my post of a couple of weeks ago.  I don’t typically give you updates so frequently, but given it is year end, I have just updated my market report on how the Greater Boston towns have fared over the past few years, through the last slump all the way back to the last peak.  The chart now includes the data for 2017 and can be found by clicking on the image below.

You will notice that most towns have faired well over the past few years, with most having surpassed their pre slump prices.  The towns north of Boston – Somerville, Everett, Malden, and the Boston neighborhoods that had the most room to climb – Mattapan, Dorcester, Chelsea, South Boston, Winthrop have seen the greatest growth. 

I would expect this growth to slow down as interest rates climb.   As I have mentioned in past updates, the real estate market goes in roughly 10 year cycles, where it will climb, level off, come down a bit, then go back up, usually not dipping below the past low.  The last dip we had was in 2012, so it’s been 5 years of growth.  We are due for a leveling off.   The recent increase in interest rates is the start of that.  They have been climbing for a few weeks now and came out today at 4.22% for a conventional 30 year mortgage.    If you want to chat about your home’s value and best time to sell, contact me.

This update is more for the benefit of sellers.  Because of tight inventory, I believe we will still have some growth this spring, but not what we have been seeing.  So, if you are an owner who is thinking of selling, this would be a good year to do so.

Michelle J. Lane

MICHELLE J. LANE, Realtor
Century 21 Commonwealth
CELL: 617 584-3904

State of the Real Estate Market – Jan 2018

by Michelle J. Lane, Realtor

Housing Value

There are so many topics we can cover in talking about the state of the Real Estate market.  To be succinct, I will briefly cover these three topics.

  1. Tax Reform Bill
  2. Inventory
  3. Interest Rates

Tax Reform

There are many articles out there on the new tax reform bill and how it impacts homeowners.  I wrote one you can find here.  As you probably know, the key changes are that the Mortgage Interest Deduction has been capped to a $750,000 mortgage, down from $1m and that the maximum amount of real estate tax you can deduct is $10,000.  These changes will affect homeowners here in the Greater Boston area.  Today the median home price in Newton is $2,295,000, which would clearly require a mortgage over $750,000 for most people.  Moody’s is estimating that this will cause a 4% loss in home values from where they would have been if the Tax Reform Bill were not in place. 

Inventory

It is early in the year to be able to say where inventories will be for spring, but looking at a snapshot of today compared to the same day over the past 4 years, inventories are remaining low:

Newton Housing Inventory

Interest Rates

Given the Tax Reform Bill reduction in the Mortgage Interest Deduction only affects new mortgages (after Dec 15, 2017), it is possible that sellers will want to hang on to their existing mortgage and stay in their homes, which will further exacerbate inventory shortages.

Are now over 4%.  I expect they will stay there and possibly go up from there.  I say possibly only because rates have defied rate hikes by the Federal Reserve over the last couple of years.  The Fed does expect to make at least two more hikes in 2018. 

In Summary….

Because inventory is still low and people have not yet felt the impact of the Tax Reform Bill, I expect the spring market to still be brisk.  I suspect that the less desirable homes will feel the sting of the changes  by staying on the market longer.  By less desirable, I mean those that need a good deal of updating.  Buyers (who are not builders) are reluctant to buy these.  Once they make their downpayment, they don’t have money left over for updates.  If they have any money left over, they don’t have time to manage the projects, don’t want their children breathing in construction dust, and cannot find contractors to do the work.  

At the entry level prices (in Newton that is around $600K) you will find Buyers who are willing to take on projects in order to get into the city.  However, once you get to prices where they can buy a house  that does not need work, say $800K or more, they would rather get into a bidding war on an updated house than buy a project house.   If you want to know the value of your home, contact us here.

 

Spotlight on Lowell

April 26, 2016

So today I did Jury Duty in Lowell.   I’ve been there before, with my friend/client Laura Roberts, who shares my love of grand, older homes. We went on a roadtrip last year to see a particular beauty.  But I hadn’t been to Lowell Center.  I have to say the center is very quaint with the majority of the area consisting of small brick and stone storefronts from the 19th century.  I was pleasantly surprised as I never thought of Lowell as being so quaint.  In my mind, it was a former mill town that lost its reason for being (the mills) and had become a shadow of its former self akin to the Rust Belt.   

The truth is that Lowell is true to itself in that it still has a robust population that is roughly 50% immigrant, who work primarily in construction and industry.  It has not become a ghost town.  The population has, in fact grown by 5% over the past 10 years or so to about 110,000.

So why am I so curious about Lowell?  Because they have some amazing, grand old homes that can still be had for reasonable prices compared to most of the Greater Boston area.  Yet it only took me 35 mins to get from Newton to Lowell.

For a sampling of what your money can buy – here are the most grand houses on the market in Lowell today.

 

 

Beyond the awesome houses, Lowell does have a lot to offer.  An MBTA commuter line, the Merrimack River, a National Park, Universities, Hospitals. The crime rate is reasonable and declining every year.  It is about half what it was 15 years ago and less than the national average.  And I must say that everyone in the courthouse was very nice!

What it doesn’t have is great school rankings.   So it may not be ideal yet for young families looking for a city with good schools.  

As I took a break from Jury Duty, I passed a woman who was shouting to an invisible adversary and then I was approached by a panhandler.  So not exactly gentrified yet.  But I do wonder if it could be down the road as Boston and the surrounding area become too cost prohibitive.  This tight spring market is pushing prices up ever higher and is pricing people out of the area immediately surrounding Boston. 

Lowell would be great for Boomers like myself,  who don’t really want to downsize their homes but would like to cut costs in retirement.  Or for young couples who don’t plan on having children but want a nice big house not too far from Boston.

Michelle J. Lane

MICHELLE J. LANE, Realtor
Century 21 Commonwealth
CELL: 617 584-3904

 

Welcome Spring!

April 16, 2017

First, I want to wish all of you who celebrate Easter a wonderful day with your family today, I hope that those friends celebrating Passover have been enjoying their time with family this week.  Many of you are on vacation during the children’s spring break, so it is a convergence of all things that give people pause to enjoy time with the ones they love, which, to me, is the most important thing in life.

For those of you looking to find a home, the market will hit full force after everyone is back from their vacations this week.  That is a good and a bad thing.  Good because more houses will come on the market.  Bad because, once again, not enough of them.  So we have to be prepared for bidding wars and scarcity of options, particulary at the entry level.  I’ll go into the details more about the landscape and how we can succeed after Easter.

In the meantime, enjoy your loved ones, the good food, the good times and this glimpse of summer weather!

 

 

 

Michelle J. Lane

MICHELLE J. LANE, Realtor
Century 21 Commonwealth
CELL: 617 584-3904

Are Boomers Responsible for the Housing Inventory Shortage?

The answer is to a degree, but not entirely.  

To clarify my explanations below, when I refer to seniors I am talking about the generation that are mid-70s and older.  Baby Boomers are those in the 52-71 age range.

  1. New England is a bit unique in that people here, particularly the older generation, tend to stay put for many, many years. I specialize in selling homes of seniors and selling estate homes.  It is extremely rare to find an older home owner who willingly leaves their home.  If they move it is because their children have decided it is too dangerous for them to stay in the house alone.  You don’t know how many times I have heard some variation of “they are taking me out of here feet first, my children will be selling the house after I die.”
  2. In the big picture, they don’t think it makes sense for them to sell. One issue is that the value of homes in the greater Boston area has risen so much that if someone who has been in their house for 30,40,50 years sells, they would far surpass the $250K profit limit ($500K for a couple) at which point they would have to pay capital gains taxes. If they keep the house until they pass and leave it to their children, then the basis value of the home resets to whatever the market value is when they died. 
  3. Another issue is that there are very few choices for downsizing. If they are not leaving the state for a warmer climate, most seniors want to stay in the same town to be near their friends, neighbors, doctors, etc. Most of the towns outside of Boston don’t have enough inventory of affordable housing for seniors.  Boomers can’t go far because they are still working and need to be near their jobs.  All of this is compounded by the fact that demand is pushing up the price of houses on the lower end of the market, but not pushing up the price of the seniors’ larger houses commensurately.  I’ll use Newton as an example.  In Newton, a 2000sf 3-bed, 2-bath house in good condition might sell for anywhere in the $900K-$1.3m price range.   The home of a senior that might be in the 3,000-6,000sf range might sell for $1.5m-$1.6m.  Why is that?  Because if a younger person is going to buy a house of that size, they want a new one.  They realize the older homes cost more to maintain, heat, etc.  So particularly, Boomers who are working an can afford their homes, figure they may as well stay put.
  4. Boomers are uniquely nostalgic and resistant to change of their towns. Perhaps because our childhoods were at a time of prosperity for most American families and a time of suburban living with a lot of other children to play with.  The greatest resistance to change appears to come from this generation.  If builders knock down old run-down homes to build the new, big homes  we complain that the city is becoming gentrified.  Or we complain that these houses are not in keeping with the old Ranches, Capes and Split-Entries that proliferated after WWII.  If the city tries to build a higher concentration of affordable rentals, we complain it will bring crime to the city or bring people who are taking resources without contributing.  It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that if no new inventory is being added and seniors and Boomers aren’t leaving, there will be a inventory shortage.  Think of it like a revolving door and we are the ones with our foot in the door, blocking everyone behind us from moving forward.

While Boomers might be contributing, we are not entirely responsible for the shortage.  Boston is an area fortunate to be flux with high-paying jobs, but with no land left for housing developments. And we are certainly not responsible for the massive influx of foreign nationals buying homes here – with cash in their pocket and the ability to outbid most other home buyers, pushing prices up.  These people are coming here because of the great schools, the strong job market, and the stable housing market.  Several things could happen to change this in the future, but that is discussion for a future post. In the end, it still comes back to the fact that there s no room here to build more inventory unless we build up or in a higher concentration.    

It will be interesting to see what changes the future will bring – perhaps builders will find a way to build large, over 55 communities in or close to the city.  Or they will build houses that will appeal to Boomers who want a big entertaining area, but don’t need or want to pay for 5 bedrooms and 5 bathrooms.   Right now though, there is no profit for builders in creating smaller homes.

One change we all need to watch out for is inflation and rising interest rates.  If Trump succeeds in taxing everything coming into the country and bringing jobs here at a higher pay scale, inflation will follow.  Which is then followed by rising interest rates.  That could have a slowing affect on home purchases, particularly at the entry level.

I’ll expand more on these last few points in future posts as economic events unfold.

Michelle J. Lane

MICHELLE J. LANE, Realtor
Century 21 Commonwealth
CELL: 617 584-3904

Spring 2017 Market has Launched

This week, 21 houses came on the market in Newton.

New to the Market in Newton

Compare this to 11 last week.  And properties are going off the market faster than they are coming on.  33 houses went under agreement in Newton this week.

So far, it is still a seller’s market.  I don’t expect that will change until interest rates spike. More about that in my next post.  So if you are a seller, it is not too early to get your home on the market.  Contact Me if you are  thinking of selling.  By the time you get it ready, staged and photographed, the market will be in frenzy mode – if it is not already.

If you are a buyer, unfortunately, the competition is still tough.  If you see something come on that you like, there is no time to think about it.  See it as soon as you can.  And let’s make an offer.

If you want to see what is new in your town, Search for New Listings here.

Let the games begin!

Michelle J. Lane
MICHELLE J. LANE, Realtor
Century 21 Commonwealth
CELL: 617 584-3904

MICHELLE J. LANE, Realtor
Century 21 Commonwealth
CELL: 617 584-3904
michelle@michellelanerealtor.com
www.MichelleLaneRealtor.com