Newton Market Update – Week of July 4

July 5, 2016 by Michelle J. Lane, Realtor

While everyone is starting their summer vacations, the market typically does as well.   As most people know, the spring market is busy because people with families are trying to stay in their houses until the end of June, but be in their new house for the start of the school year.  The window for that to happen is just about closed.  So the market is now all about people selling and buying who are not bound by that schedule.  And, naturally, many of those buyers are home hunting in between vacations.

What does that mean for the market?  For the purposes of analysis, I look at just single family homes for the past two weeks.  It seems to have slowed down the high end, with more at that end being pulled off the market.

Newton Stats

Now you might think that is because the average price of a home in Newton is just so high that there isn’t much under $1m anyway. That is true to some degree.  But if you look at the chart below, you can see that the ratio of houses on the market to those that sold is far greater on the high end.

Newton Stats 2

So the bottom line is that there is not a bad time to sell houses in the $1.5m and under range.  But the high end is a bit tougher.

In terms of available inventory, things are about the same.  This time last year, there were 131 houses on the market.  Today there are 125.  But more of those are on the high end.  35 under $1m compared to 24 today.

So, the obvious trend is that housing is becoming far less affordable in Newton.  No surprise to anyone who is watching the market or trying to buy a house.

What would it take to change that?  As we know, the real estate market goes in cycles.  Roughly 1o year cycles where it goes up for several years, plateaus for 1 or 2, goes down for 2-3 then comes back up to surpass the high of the last cycle.  Serious economic shake-ups can shift the numbers a bit, but that is the gist of it.

So we will never go back to past lows.  But to slow down or correct this upward climb, interest rates would have to go up and jobs would have to leave the area in significant numbers.  Neither seems to be happening anytime soon.  As a matter of fact, the Brexit mess has caused our mortgage rates to go down.

So if you are a buyer looking in the under $1.5m range, keep at it.  It does not appear that things will get any easier with the passing of time.

If you are a seller, there is no bad time to sell.  The withdrawal of homes on the high end is not so much because this is a bad time to sell, but because supply exceeds demand.  But yes, putting them back on in the fall is not a bad idea.

If you are trying to figure out when to sell your house and for what price, contact me to schedule a meeting.

Michelle J. Lane
MICHELLE J. LANE, Realtor
Century 21 Commonwealth
CELL: 617 584-3904